From the National Hurricane Center:
TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH…AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
HURRICANE WATCH…
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF
FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND…GEORGIA.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH…
IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
POSITION/INTENSITY:
AT 900 PM EDT…0100Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES…
75 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…988 MB.
NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES…
75 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…988 MB.
THE HOOK ECHO DISCUSSION:
Tropical Storm Fay continues to spin over central Florida. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center, calls for the storm to move northeastward, off the east coast of Florida on Wednesday, where it is expected to become a Catagory One hurricane by Wednesday night. A slow turn to the northwest is expected, with landfall on the northern portion of the Florida east coast perhpas Thursday. After that, a slow but steady path to the northwest across the northern portion of the peninsula is anticipated, as it weakens into a tropical storm and eventually a tropical depression by Friday night. A slow track to the northwest is expected Saturday into Sunday, with the center of the tropical depression crossing southern or central Alabama.
When this storm is finally a memory, the greatest legacy of Fay may not be strong winds, storm surge or tornadoes (although that will certainly be a part of its life cycle.) The first word that may come to mind when someone remembers Fay may be flooding. Serious, perhaps historic flooding may take place. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) in Washington is predicting a huge swatch of 15″+ of rainfall from the present time through Sunday for east-central and northern portions of the Florida peninsula as well as adjacent portions of extreme southern Georgia. What is just as impressive is a forecast of 28.8″ of rain for this period, just off Daytona Beach. While this is over open water, rainfall of nearly equal totals well in excess of 15″ (perhaps 20″+) may occur over land. Rainfall of this magnatude would not only create potentially deadly flash flooding, but staggering river flooding as well.
It may well be that this vigorous tropical storm/bordline hurricane will be known for this type of historic rainfall and flooding. By this time next week, we’ll all know.
